Fareed Mosavat (Reforge EIR, Former Slack/Instacart/Zynga) and I have been having a lot of conversations lately on how to adapt growth strategies in these crazy times. We wrote a detailed post on how we are thinking about it. A few key points:
1 - We Are In The Middle Innings
With COVID, customer behavior changed overnight. We all had to react to those changes. But those that pull out of this in the lead will realize we are entering the middle innings of this game. Customer behavior is going to continue to change and we need to continue to adapt our strategies quickly.
2 - Your Strategy Depends on Where You Are On The Headwind ↔ Tailwind Spectrum
Your product lives somewhere on the headwind to tailwind spectrum
Extreme Headwinds - The majority of your customers' habits with your core problem have been completely broken. The core question is how do you re-establish habits and with whom?
Extreme Tailwinds - The majority of your target customers' habits have been accelerated and strengthened. You are also seeing unintended audiences start to build new habits. The core question is who are you going to keep and how?
In-Between - Some of your customers' habits have been broken, some weakened, some strengthened, etc. The net effect of this and how it might change is likely not 100% clear. The core question is how do you be proactive vs reactive?
3 - Engagement Data Is Misleading In Almost All Cases
In all cases, engagement data is only part of the story and in isolation is misleading.
Tailwinds - Just because users are showing healthy frequency of engagement, doesn't mean they will stick post COVID. A teacher being forced to use Zoom because they can't be in the classroom is probably showing healthy engagement right now. But that doesn't mean they will stick post COVID. Instead, you have to look at underlying behavior data of why they are using the product and gauge whether that why will sustain.
Headwinds - Just because a user use to have healthy engagement, does not mean we should prioritize them. If we are Eventbrite, looking at prior usage data might lead us to a segment of customers like concert promoters. Pre-COVID, they had high frequency and high value. So what if we focus there first? It's unlikely that this segment will be the first to come back to the platform. Instead, you have to look at how fast a Use Case will come back, and what the strength of the alternative those customers has chosen.
In-Between - You have to evaluate each customer to see where they are on the headwind/tailwind spectrum. Then apply the strategies from Tailwind and Headwinds.
Read the full details of determining your retention strategy in uncertain times here.
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